Monday, October 03, 2005

What will the future bring?

Will training at CTS have a positive influence on my rating?
Officially that can only be proven with the dutch ratinglist in hand.
The next rated games lie ahead.
Within a few weeks the regional competition starts (7 rated games).
And a regional championship (9 games).
Both happenings last until april/may.
The rating will be available only per august 1, 2006.
In january I plan to go to the Corus tournament.
Ratingprogress from that will be available per may 1, 2006.
So that is some time to go.

Maybe I go to an unrated rapidtournament in November (5 games G25).
This should give an indication of progress.

So since we have to wait for an official prove, what do I expect?
I will try to estimate.
Be prepared for my infamous algebra.
I expect my rating at CTS to increase every month with 20 points.
Right now I have gained 60 points. If I can maintain the pace it will be 100 points within two months.
What is a rating gain of 100 points worth in the real world?
The points at CTS are somewhat compressed.
This means that a ratingdifference of 700 points OTB = 500 points at CTS.
But that is when you compare the level at CTS with the level OTB.
This isn't reciprocal.

If my rating at CTS improves to 1900, I don't have the level of 2400+ OTB of the masters at CTS. Maybe I have equal tactical skills by then, but I miss for instance their positional- and endgame knowledge.
Now I have to make an assumption.
Let's assume that the ratingprogress depends for 30% on tactical skills.
This means that every 100 points CTS transfer to ca. 30 points OTB.
Given the fact that ratings are compressed at CTS with a factor 500:700 (see above) leads to 100 points CTS = 42 points OTB.

It is not unusual for a rating OTB to wobble +/- 60 points.
A progress of only 42 points lies well within the usual bandwidth.
For a prove I should say that a ratingprogress of 100 points OTB is convincing enough.
This means 238 points improvement at CTS.
To reach that I have to solve about 100,000 problems at CTS.
That will take another 8 months to complete.

100,000 probs = 10 months = 240 points at CTS = 100 points OTB.

Since 13 yo youngsters tend to kick my butt by tactical means and not by sophisticated positional play nor endgame skills, I hope that the attribution to the rating by tactical skills of 30% is underestimated. At least below 2000.

For the final conclusion you have to be patient.
If CTS is the holy grail, I don't expect many followers to go for it.
But the arithmatic was fun.

circle 0: 1470
circle 1: 1500
circle 2: 1520
circle 3: 25,000 /70,000
Highest rating 1567


  1. A sophisticated and reasonable analysis. I wish you luck in the OTB play. I, on the other hand, am tanking badly against my Chessmaster opponents

  2. The lower the rating, the higher is the proportion of tactics. I would say that around 1600 tactics is more than 80% of the business, at 2000 it still may be 50%. But I really don't know - just my estimation.

  3. Is that 25,000 OF 70,000 total problems?! If so, holy crap. How many have you been doing a day?

  4. PMD, that is correct. While you were pestering trouts Mouse and I did some homework. That means 400 problems a day. We found that it is an idiot idea to try to do multi movers if you can't even do one movers a tempo. The problems at CTS are simple and adapt to your strength. The time constraints make that you are only rewarded for patterns you produce a tempo.

    Try it your self: play against a computer a tempo. Even when the level is one ply deep you will score only 50% or less. So all this positional play and thoughtprocesses is really nonsense AT OUR LEVEL. First learn to do one movers correct a tempo.

    In The Netherlands an adult looks about three hours per day television. We have 33 TV-stations and the quality is such that doing chessproblems is far more entertaining.

  5. Now that winter approaches (it is snowing right now), the trout can breathe a sigh of relief as I put up my rod and hunker down to my chess study. I don't have to worry about T.V. either because I haven't received a signal or had cable in over seven years. I have a T.V. set but I use it to watch movies only.

    However, I think if I lived in the Netherlands I would probably be so distracted with the Amsterdam "coffee houses" that I don't think I'd ever get anything done ;)

  6. PMD, I'm proud that our coffeehouses are famous even in the US. I don't see any reason why softdrugs shouldn't be legalized. It is far less harmful than drinking a beer. I lived for 32 years in Amsterdam and about 6 years ago I tried some softdrugs. Just for the experiment. But you know what, softdrugs make that you lose control over your mind. Since I don't like that, I fell asleep everytime I tried it. So I'll stick with beer. . .