Finding my way in the chessdevelopment- and training jungle in order to improve my rating.
Monday, October 15, 2007
Nuclear powered Tunnelvision
Sciurus drew my attention to BAD, blog action day, so I decided to write about the environment.
History seems to show that the level of carbon dioxide follows the temperature of the athmosphere with an average delay of 750 years. This means that the current rise of carbon dioxide originates in the global rise of temperature of 1250 AD. Because when the sea heats up, it releases more carbon dioxide.
According to some papers 95% of the greenhouses gases consist of water vapor. That raises the question "how important can human influence be, relatively?".
However it may be unlikely that the current warming is caused by humans, I don't like the idea of releasing smoke in any form in the athmosphere anyway. From that point of view, I'm happy with the current hype.
Whether it is caused by humans or not, I have two problems with the current hype of global warming:
I don't trust nuclear power plants. If you calculate the need for power and you compare that with the "green" power we can generate, you will see an enormous shortage. So if you set your goals of carbon dioxide reduction high, nuclear power is inevitable. Being pro CO2 reduction will become being pro nuclear power. Mark my words. I have been in a nuclear power plant lately, and I was shocked to notice that the safety measures are quite insufficient. The human role in the safety is way too big and the stuff is much too complicated for the human brain, so it is very easy to draw the wrong conclusions when something goes wrong, thus administering the wrong remedy. What use is it to delay the burning of electrical insulation with half an hour when it will burn anyway, causing unexpected circuitry? What use is a protection against a downfalling plane from 1965 when the planes are 3 times as big, nowadays? So it is just a matter of statistics when a major accident will hebben.
I don't like tunnelvision among scientists. I remember very well the hype of acid rain in the eighties. A few scientists came out of their lab, counted a few needles from a pine tree, plotted 3 points in a graph, drew a straight line through it and predicted that there would be no pine trees in 2015. Only much later they discovered it was only autumn. . . The problem with scientific research is that someone has to pay for it. This makes that the resulting scientific report is often colored by what the principal wants to hear. Those who base their work on such reports in good faith often take over the color unnoticed. After many years this results in tunnelvision. Where everybody seems to agree with everybody. Right now I simply can't get rid of the feeling that tunnelvision has replaced an open mind.