Search for the tipping point

 Sofar we have found move 17. ... Kf7 where almost every move gives black the opportunity to keep the balance, and move 32, where every move from white indicates a probable win for white except for the two pawn breaks:

• 32.b4 gives black chances to win
• 32.f5 and black is probably able to hold the draw

Somewhere between move 17 and move 32 the balance has tipped. Let's see whether we can find the precise tipping point.

It seems to be that 25. ... g6? is indeed the tipping point, as the author indicated. Stockfish indicates that from here both Rd1 and Rf3-d3 are clearly better for white. Showing that the rook trade is the direction to go. There are a lot of other moves for white that score well too. Which shows that when the option of the rook trade is kept open, white is somewhat better. But the route to go is evidently the rook trade.

All relevant diagrams are shown in the previous post.

The next question is: what is the method to press forward from move 32 for white?

There are three types of moves:

• 32.h3 and 32.g4 which make progress
• all other moves that make no progress but don't give the better position away
• 32.b4 and 32.f5 that either gives the win away or loses potentially

The problem is that it is difficult to see the difference between type 1 and 2 with the aid of Stockfish, because both kind of moves score about the same. In order to keep matters a bit structured (in my mind) I'm going to treat both subjects in different posts:

• why is 25. ... g6? so bad
• what is the method to make progress after move 32